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社科院:楼市“金九银十”落空 房价稳中有降

来源:人民网 时间:2018-09-27 16:03:32

日前,中国社科院财经战略研究院、中国社科院城市与竞争力研究中心发布了2018年9月《中国住房市场发展月度分析报告》(以下简称“报告”)。报告预测,短期来看一线、准一线及二线城市“金九银十”落空,房价稳中有降。三四线城市房价涨速继续下降。

对于目前住房市场的发展现状与存在问题。报告中指出,一线城市房价稳中略升,但潜在供求矛盾难以短期缓解。2018年初以来,北京房价开始回升,上海继续回落,深圳小幅上涨,广州较快上涨。2018年8月,在中央严控房价上涨的政策背景下,北京房价回升节奏被中断。与2018年7月相比,一线城市房价环比上涨0.27%,比上月仅扩大0.01个百分点。其中8月广州环比上涨1.49%,深圳环比上涨0.85%,北京环比下跌0.02%,上海环比下跌1.24%。与上年同月相比,2018年8月一线城市房价同比上涨4.1%,年度房价涨幅也在相对合理的范围内。其中广州同比上涨18.19%,北京同比上涨0.09%,上海同比下跌8.37%。

一线城市住房市场具有供给增长潜力小、需求增长潜力大的特征,住房供求矛盾长期存在。在严厉的限购限贷政策作用下,虽然当前房价上涨得到了抑制,但是住房供求矛盾仍通过一些曲折的形式表现出来。比如住房租金快速上涨等,就在一定程度上反映了一线城市的住房供应偏紧局面。

准一线及二线城市房价涨速显著下降,但房价预期具有较高的不稳定性。8月西安、重庆、长沙、青岛、杭州、武汉、济南等多个热点城市房价微跌或止涨,成都房价出现较快下跌。在政府严控房价上涨、棚改货币化政策调整、市场短周期接近见顶等因素的综合作用下,准一线及二线城市房价退热。与上年同期上比,准一线及二线城市仍累积了较高的房价涨幅。2018年8月,准一线城市房价同比上涨16.09%,二线城市同比上涨16.75%。但与上月相比,2018年8月准一线城市房价环比微涨0.16%,涨幅比上月回落1.13个百分点;二线城市房价环比微涨0.01%,涨幅比上月回落0.57个百分点。前期热点城市中,杭州、西安环比分别微涨0.59%及0.12%;武汉、青岛、长沙、济南、厦门、重庆环比分别下跌0.04%、0.06%、0.13%、0.19%、0.51%和0.7%;成都环比下跌达3.23%。

由于准一线及二线城市在中国城市体系中承上启下的特殊地位,准一线及二线城市的房价预期在时间上也存在较高的不稳定性。众多的准一线及部分二线城市以一线城市作为发展目标。当市场向好时,对房价的预期往往过于乐观。而当市场有所下行时,对房价的预期又会偏于悲观。这导致准一线及二线城市房价在2017-2018年迅速上扬。

三四线城市房价涨速回落,但低库存与高空置同时并存。三四线城市房价仍惯性上涨,但总体涨速有所回落。从2018年以来累计涨幅看,三四线城市平均累计上涨10.45%。在房地产市场调控向三四线城市延伸、货币化棚改政策调整的背景下,三四线城市房价涨速有所回落。2018年8月,三四线城市环比上涨0.45%,涨速比7月回落0.69个百分点。安阳、南阳、常州、烟台等城市房价涨幅较仍较高,三亚、廊坊等住房投资属性较高的城市房价下跌,其中三亚环比下跌2.31%,廊坊环比大跌5.59%。

2016年以来,在货币化棚改等强力去库存政策的作用下,三四线城市新建商品住房总体库存水平较低。虽然商品住房实现了快速出售去库存,但是由于就业机会相对较少、公共服务水平相对较低、人才吸引力偏小等原因,存量住房的利用率并不高。存量住房空置现象较为严重,抑制了三四线城市住房市场的长期发展。

对于当前房地产市场的形势分析与预测。报告分析,中央定调坚决抑制房价上涨,对房价上涨预期有较大影响。中共中央政治局7月31日召开会议,分析研究当前经济形势,部署下半年经济工作,提出要坚决遏制房价上涨。这是中央层面首次将房价调控目标由抑制房价过快上涨转变为遏制房价上涨。这不仅将影响市场房价预期,也将促使地方政府将房地产调控政策真正落到实处。

从一线城市看,北京等一线城市住房租金的快速上涨,将增加房价上涨的压力。由于租房市场与住房市场的替代效应,租金上涨将迫使一部分租房家庭考虑购房,从而又会反过来使房价上涨压力增加。

从二线城市看,二线城市住房限价有所放松,短期供应紧张局面有所缓解。2018年下半年,二线城市住房限价有放松的态势,这将促使被捂盘惜售的新房重新进入市场。虽然新房价格会出现暂时上调,但短期供应紧张局面将有所缓解。

从三四线城市看,棚改货币化政策淡出,调控政策由一二线城市向三四线城市深入,对三四线在市房价涨势形成较强抑制作用。棚改货币化政策淡出,将对快速上涨的三四线城市房价起到釜底抽薪的功效。另一方面,多个热点三四线城市被住建部约谈,调控政策由一二线城市向三四线城市延伸,将使三四线城市住房投资投机活动受到抑制。

基于多种因素综合推测,报告认为,短期看一线、准一线及二线城市“金九银十”落空,房价稳中有降。三四线城市房价涨速继续下降。

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